It is expected that rubber scenario in 2014 is still in low gear amid the slowing global economy. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global growth to average 2.9 percent in 2013 — below the 3.2 percent recorded in 2012 and to rise to 3.6 percent in 2014. Much of the pickup in growth is expected to be driven by advanced economies. Growth in major emerging markets, although still strong, is expected to be weaker than the earlier IMF forecast. 

Asia and Africa will be the fastest growing regions of the world. Among Asia, China is the fastest-growing economy. Chinese GDP is expected to expand 7.3 percent in 2014 and average 7.7 percent in 2014-2018. GDP in India is expected to climb up 5.1 percent in 2014 and average 5.9 percent in 2014-2018. Global GDP does not grow considerably due to domestic vulnerabilities in emerging market economies, unfinished financial sector reforms in the euro area, fiscal and financial risks in many other advanced economies, including Japan and the United States. Geopolitical risks have also resurfaced in recent months.

In terms of natural rubber outlook, according to Economist Intelligence Unit, demand is expected to rise at annual 4% in 2014 and 2015 after declines in some major consumers brought growth rate down to 1.6% this year. Demand is expected to total 11.6 million tonnes in 2014 and 12.1 million tonnes in 2015. Output will be little changed this year because of low prices; may rise 4.6% to 11.8 million tons next year and 4.4% to 12.4 million tonnes in 2015. Global surplus may reach 134,000 tonnes this year, 200,000 tonnes in 2014 and 257,000 tonnes in 2015. Consumption in China may grow 2% in 2014 and around 4% in 2015. India’s demand may shrink around 4% this year and expand 8.5% in 2014. Thai output is expected to grow by 6% in 2014 and 5% in 2015.
Whatsoever, the Thai Rubber Association has positive attitude towards rubber market outlook since natural rubber contributes to economic growth. Besides, International Rubber Consortium Ltd. (IRCo) and Thai government are ready to provide the solution to falling rubber prices with various schemes. This mechanism will ensure a brighter rubber situation.

In conclusion, the Thai Rubber Association believes in the long-lasting relationship and corporation with the concerned sectors i.e. government agencies, private sector, rubber growers as well as the three largest NR producers, namely Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, to provide strategic direction and solution to falling prices in short term and long term and ultimately to stabilize the rubber prices.

On the occasion of the New Year 2014, I extend to you and your family our warmest greetings, wishing you a happy New Year, your career greater success, your family happiness and your perfect health and lasting prosperity.