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สาส์นจากนายกสมาคม TRA PRESIDENT VIEW
 
   PRESIDENT VIEW
   Natural Rubber Situation in 2025
The global economy is expected to slow down due to the impact of inflation and rising production costs. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that the global real GDP growth rate for 2024 and 2025 will be 3.2%. Contributing factors include high interest rates, the appreciation of the US dollar, and geopolitical tensions such as the potential escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Furthermore, the return of the US President Donald Trump, with his continuation of the 'Make America Great Again' policy and the 'America First' agenda, may further exacerbate these challenges. These policies include the imposition of a 60% import tax on China and a 10-20% import tax on other countries, aimed at protecting domestic industries and reducing reliance on foreign production. Such tariffs could disrupt global supply chains, particularly those involving China. Additionally, the effects of climate change, coupled with the spread of rubber leaf fall disease, have severely hindered agricultural production, further compounding economic pressures.

The rubber industry in 2025 is expected to experience a slowdown due to both global economic factors and the issues outlined above. The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) forecasts that global natural rubber production in 2024 will reach 14.53 million tons, reflecting a 4.5% increase from 2023. Thailand remains the leading producer, followed by Indonesia, Côte d'Ivoire, Vietnam, and India. Global demand for natural rubber is expected to be 15.14 million tons, representing a slight decrease of 0.2% from 2023. China remains the top consumer, followed by India, Thailand, the EU-27 & UK, and Indonesia. Thailand faces significant risks from climate change, which is becoming increasingly frequent and severe. Additionally, Thailand’s entrepreneurs face the challenge of adapting to stricter climate-related regulations globally, including the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the EU Deforestation-Free Products Regulation, which is expected to come into effect in early 2026.

In conclusion, the Thai Rubber Association anticipates strong cooperation from the relevant public, private, and smallholder sectors. Thailand must swiftly adjust trade and export strategies by focusing on securing new trade partners, exploring alternative markets to mitigate export risks, and preparing to comply with evolving trade regulations in order to maintain the competitiveness and sustainability of the natural rubber industry.

Mr. Veerasith Sinchareonkul
President
The Thai Rubber Association

Monthly of   January  2025     
     
  history  
 
[   January  2023 ]
icon Retrospection and Prospection
The current committee of the Thai Rubber Association has been in charge of the operation since 2022. The operation of the committee is based upon the following principles: 1) to operate on the principle of transparency and good governance; 2) to corporate with government agencies and private sector both at local and international level; 3) to cherish close relationships with other rubber producing countries, particularly in Asia; 4) to act as an interme...
     [ Read more...]  

[   January  2023 ]
icon African Market
Nowadays, Africa has become a new interesting export market and an attractive foreign direct investment destination amid the slowing economies of mature markets, namely the USA, EU, and Japan. Exporters resort to Africa as a new market with a high potential return and the second largest market after Asia. Africa bordered Europe and Asia with an approximate area of 3,029.92 billion hectares, consisting of a plateau covering about 2 in 3 of the total area...
     [ Read more...]  

[   December  2022 ]
icon Natural Rubber Situation in 2022
Natural Rubber output has decreased due to heavy rains in many areas and flooding in some areas. Even though the container shortage issue starts to improve as well as the freight rate, there are other risk factors such as Pestalotiopsis leaf fall disease and the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war. These factors affect energy and commodity prices and the volatility of the global financial markets. Furthermore, trade partners' economies slowed down. Inflation a...
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[   October  2022 ]
icon AI and Digital Technologies to Driven Business
Nowadays, digital technology is a significant thing that many people pay attention to, including global businesses, because every leading organization knows that digital technology is one of the important keys to business operations and industry competition in this era. We are probably familiar with the term "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI." It refers to the processing systems of computers, robots, machines, or electronic devices with in-depth analysis...
     [ Read more...]  

[   September  2022 ]
icon The EU Regulation on Deforestation-Free Products
The Thai Rubber Association (TRA) has followed up on the progress of the EU Regulation on Deforestation-Free Products. TRA found that the regulation will apply to the companies in the EU (27 countries) that use or import products that might be related to deforestation based on scientific evidence. The regulation covers various commodities, such as cattle, wood, palm oil, soy, coffee, cocoa, and some processed commodities, such as leather, furniture, and...
     [ Read more...]  


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