The world economic outlook tends to recover due to the efficient management in controlling the COVID-19 outbreak in many countries such as China and the US. The United States is efficient in the COVID-19 vaccine distribution with 55% of the US citizens received at least 1 dose and 47% received 2 doses. As a result, many businesses are back to their operations. Furthermore, the US also rolled out their economic stimulus plans. If the US economy recovers, the world economy will recover as well. The US recovery means that the private investment at the global level will start. In addition, the economic stimulus plans of the US will help other countries’ export recovery. Recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) changed the world’s GDP outlook forecast to +7%, up from +6% previously.

Thailand’s economy in 2021 is expected to recover slowly due to the impacts of the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, which spread rapidly in various clusters. Therefore, the government should expedite the COVID-19 vaccine procurement and distribution to control the outbreak. Furthermore, the government should expedite the fund for remedy measures and economic stimulus measures to urge the economy and take care of the labor market. Meanwhile, fiscal measures play a significant role in driving the economy that is still highly uncertain. The monetary policy must continue to loosen. The government should accelerate the distribution of liquidity to those affected by the COVID-19 impacts. In addition, the government should support debt reduction and economic restoration. Although Thai exports continually expand following the global economic recovery, Thailand’s economic outlook still tends to grow 1.8% in 2021 and 3.9% in 2022. According to the 4th/2021 Monetary Policy Committee Meeting held on June 23, 2021, the committee agreed to remain the interest rate at 0.5% per year.

Thailand Industrial Sentiment Index (TISI) in May 2021 dropped to 82.3 from 84.3 due to the third wave of the COVID-19 outbreak. It causes many infected as well as new clusters, especially in industrial plants, which directly affect the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, vaccine distribution has been delayed. Moreover, the government has stepped up the COVID-19 control measures, as a result, economic activity is slow down, and domestic demand still slowly recovers. Furthermore, entrepreneurs still confront the high operating costs issue. In terms of Thailand’s international trade in May 2021, Thailand’s export income value 714,885.27 million baht, up 36.22% yoy, and up 8.88% compared with the previous month. Meanwhile, Thailand’s import value 699,918.17 million baht, up 57.50% yoy, and up 6.04% compared with the past month. In terms of trade balance in May 2021, Thailand recorded a trade surplus of 14,967.10 million baht, down 81.38% yoy (Ministry of Commerce, 2021).

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) informed that the US manufacturing sector’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is 62.1 in June 2021 as the same as the previous month. Meanwhile, Thailand’s PMI is up to 49.5 in June 2021 from 47.8 in the previous month. In June 2021, the demand is slow down as well as the production. Meanwhile, raw material prices continually increase. Most companies and entrepreneurs still have negative confidence due to the COVID-19 crisis caused purchasing and employment dropped. As a result, overall confidence in Thailand’s manufacturing sector continually declines. Even though foreign demand for Thai goods is continually increasing from the previous month, Thai manufacturers are more cautious about stocking their products.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has announced that the crude oil inventories have decreased 7.6 million barrels to 459.1 million barrels for the week ending on 18 June 2021. Crude oil prices increase. Also, crude oil demand tends to gradually recover after people began to resume travel activities, especially in Germany. However, markets remain worried about the crude oil demand recovery due to the COVID-19 crisis, especially Delta cases which continually increase in Southeast Asia, the UK, and many European countries. Various countries in Southeast Asia have extended their lockdown measures. According to the meeting on 1 July 2021, the OPEC+ members projected that crude oil demand would recover. Additionally, they tend to increase their production capacity. On 29 June 2021, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and Brent crude oil prices stood at 72.98 and 74.76 USD/barrel.

In June 2021, rubber yield increases due to tapping season even though various areas in the South of Thailand still have some rain which is not conducive to rubber tapping. Overall, rubber prices decline due to various factors. For example, domestic buyers slow down their purchases because many clusters occurred in domestic and foreign factories, and the outbreak still cannot be controlled. As a result, there is a Shock crisis in the manufacturing sector, and the delivery is delay. Moreover, Malaysia had rolled out the lockdown measure until 28 June 2021, and they tend to prolong the lockdown period if there are infected cases more than 4,000 cases per day. Other factors are rubber-tapping labor shortage issues, container shortage issues, oil price fluctuation, and the high freight rate. In addition, there is a shortage of semiconductors used in the production of various chips. As a result, the automobile factory both within the country and others have to temporarily stop the production from time to time. Furthermore, foreign futures markets decline. The Rubber Authority of Thailand has rolled out various measures to lessen the suffering of farmers and entrepreneurs, such as the loan support scheme for working capital for farmers' institutions to collect rubber (extended the period till the end of March 2024), the rubber usage promotion in government agencies project (extended until September 2022) and the loan support for rubber product entrepreneurs scheme, extended the project implementation period 2016-2026 and the application period until 31 December 2021.

In May 2021, Thailand exported 349,604.15 tons of natural rubber (including compound rubber), down 10.01% from the previous month and up 4.51% yoy, generating an export income of 18.6 billion baht, down 7.96% compared with the past month, up 36.28% yoy. In the tyre sector, in May 2021, Thailand exported 11.98 million units of all tyres, up 63.11% yoy, with an export value of 14.9 billion baht, up 70.57% YoY.

In May 2021, Thailand’s car production is 140,168 units, up 150.14% yoy, and up 34.32% compared with the previous month, including production for export of 81,284 units (57.99% of all production) and production for domestic sale 58,884 units (42.01% of all production). Meanwhile, Thailand's domestic car sale in May 2021 is 55,942, down 3.77% compared with the previous month. From January to May 2021, Thailand’s car production is 710,356 units, up 32.92% yoy.