In October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global growth to slow down from 3.5% in 2022 to 3.0% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024. The global economy recovered well in the first half of 2023, but the global growth outlook remains weak. Furthermore, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has projected global GDP growth for 2023 at 3.0%, the US at 2.2%, China at 5.1%, India at 6.3%, and the G20 countries at 3.1%. The US economic outlook has an expected slowdown and a decline in inflationary pressures. In addition, the US Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) dropped from 104.3 in September 2023 to 102.6 in October 2023. While China's economy continuously faces the real estate crisis, recently, the Chinese government has rolled out measures to support local governments and increase their ability to cope with natural disasters.
In October, Thailand’s economy was supported by the tourism and export sectors. Headline Inflation in October 2023 decreased by 0.31% as a result of lower prices in energy and consumer goods. For the whole year, inflation was expected to be between 1.0-1.7%, and it is still necessary to closely monitor international conflicts and oil prices. On October 16–19, 2023, Thailand's Prime Minister paid an official visit to China to attend the 3rd Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation to explain the Landbridge project and to create connectivity to present Thailand as an EV hub and support the development of digital and Thai tourism. The Prime Minister believes that the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) will create international cooperation in many dimensions, including trade, investment, tourism, and culture. As for Thailand's economy, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) expects that Thailand's economy in 2023 will expand by 2.6-2.7% despite the uncertainty of the global situation. Moreover, there are risk factors that still need to be monitored, including China's economic slowdown.
The Thailand Industrial Sentiment Index (TISI) in October 2023 decreased to 88.4 from 90.0 the previous month because loan interest rates are moving upward. Furthermore, the manufacturing sector is slowing down, and consumer purchasing power remains weak. Moreover, the Baht has weakened. The "Free Visa" measure for Chinese and Kazakhstan tourists bolsters the tourism sector's recovery. In addition, the government has issued energy group measures by reducing the prices of electricity and diesel fuel. As a result, production costs decreased. However, the government should monitor the situation and roll out policies to revive and encourage the economy. Furthermore, the government should consider increasing the minimum wage, which will affect the cost of production. Overall, Thailand's consumer confidence index for October 2023 was reported at 55.8, up from 55.7 in the previous month.
In terms of Thailand’s international trade in September 2023, Thailand’s export income value was 888,666 million baht, up 2.1% YoY. Meanwhile, Thailand’s import value was 825,310 million baht, down 8.3% YoY. Thailand's trade balance in September 2023 recorded a surplus of 63,355 million baht. From January to September 2023, Thailand’s export income value was 213,069.4 million US dollars, down 3.8%. However, if the value calculated in baht terms, Thailand’s trade balance for the first 9 months of 2023 recorded a deficit of 289,744 million baht (Trade Policy and Strategy Office, Ministry of Commerce, 2023).
According to S&P Global, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased to 50.0 in October 2023 from 49.8 the previous month. In October 2023, Thailand’s PMI stood at 47.5, down from 47.8 the previous month. In October, Thailand’s manufacturing sector was slowing down due to slow demand; moreover, new orders continued to decline.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) announced that crude oil inventories were at 15.21 million barrels for the period ending October 27, 2023, a slight increase from the last week because crude oil prices tended to be volatile amid conflict between Israel and the Hamas group. Meanwhile, the market kept an eye on the Federal Reserve (FED) meeting result and the increasing production number of OPEC. On October 31, 2023, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil prices stood at 81.02 and 87.41 USD/barrel, respectively.
The average rubber prices announced by the Central Rubber Market in Songkhla in October 2023 increased compared with the previous month because there was 60–80% of the rain in the southern region, resulting in less rubber entering the market. Meanwhile, the international futures market also improved because China’s economy signaled a recovery. In September 2023, Thailand exported 312,182 tons of natural rubber (including compound rubber), generating an export income of 14.6 billion baht. In the tyre sector, Thailand exported 11.8 million units of all tyres for a total value of 21.2 billion baht.
In September 2023, Thailand’s car production was 164,093 units, down 8.45% YoY but up 8.92% compared with the previous month. In September 2023, Thailand's car production for export was 104,096 units (63.44% of all production), down 1.97% YoY, and domestic sales were 59,997 units (36.56% of all production), down 17.87 YoY due to the strictness of financial institutions in credit approval. From January to September 2023, Thailand’s car production was 1,385,971 units, up 1.61% YoY.
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