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สาส์นจากนายกสมาคม TRA PRESIDENT VIEW
 
   主席观点
   Natural Rubber Situation in 2025
The global economy is expected to slow down due to the impact of inflation and rising production costs. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that the global real GDP growth rate for 2024 and 2025 will be 3.2%. Contributing factors include high interest rates, the appreciation of the US dollar, and geopolitical tensions such as the potential escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Furthermore, the return of the US President Donald Trump, with his continuation of the 'Make America Great Again' policy and the 'America First' agenda, may further exacerbate these challenges. These policies include the imposition of a 60% import tax on China and a 10-20% import tax on other countries, aimed at protecting domestic industries and reducing reliance on foreign production. Such tariffs could disrupt global supply chains, particularly those involving China. Additionally, the effects of climate change, coupled with the spread of rubber leaf fall disease, have severely hindered agricultural production, further compounding economic pressures.

The rubber industry in 2025 is expected to experience a slowdown due to both global economic factors and the issues outlined above. The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) forecasts that global natural rubber production in 2024 will reach 14.53 million tons, reflecting a 4.5% increase from 2023. Thailand remains the leading producer, followed by Indonesia, Côte d'Ivoire, Vietnam, and India. Global demand for natural rubber is expected to be 15.14 million tons, representing a slight decrease of 0.2% from 2023. China remains the top consumer, followed by India, Thailand, the EU-27 & UK, and Indonesia. Thailand faces significant risks from climate change, which is becoming increasingly frequent and severe. Additionally, Thailand’s entrepreneurs face the challenge of adapting to stricter climate-related regulations globally, including the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the EU Deforestation-Free Products Regulation, which is expected to come into effect in early 2026.

In conclusion, the Thai Rubber Association anticipates strong cooperation from the relevant public, private, and smallholder sectors. Thailand must swiftly adjust trade and export strategies by focusing on securing new trade partners, exploring alternative markets to mitigate export risks, and preparing to comply with evolving trade regulations in order to maintain the competitiveness and sustainability of the natural rubber industry.

Mr. Veerasith Sinchareonkul
President
The Thai Rubber Association

主席观点   January  2025     
     
  history  
 
[   January  2015 ]
icon Iranian market

Iran is one of the most interesting export destinations with high potential for expansion of Thai natural rubber and related product industry. Iran has a total population of around 80 million. It has a rich abundance of natural resources. Iran shares the border with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and CIS countries with a total population of hundred millions, making Iran a center of distribution of goods to neighboring countries. Key Thai export goods to Iran comprise of rice, TV, air cond...

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[   December  2014 ]
icon Rubber scenario in 2015

 

It is expected that rubber scenario in 2015 is still in low gear amid the slowing global economy caused by low global inflation rate and crude oil price, which has declined from 115 $/barrel in June 2014 to 79.6 $/barrel in November 2014, or 30% down, resulting in the decline of energy price, which accounts for 10-15% of inflation rate calculation. With weak demand of other commodities mainly caused by weak demand from China, the largest consumer, global inflation rate was furthe...

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[   November  2014 ]
icon Development of TRA’s Website and Journal
Established in 1951, the Thai Rubber Association (TRA) has been in the operation for 63 years, currently comprising of 57 member companies. As a not-for-profit entity, TRA’s administration is based on the principle of transparency and good governance, aiming at protecting and striving for interests of the member and rubber trade sector as a whole. TRA plays a significant role in cooperating with both public and private...
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[   October  2014 ]
icon The Role of ASEAN Rubber Business Council

 

The ASEAN Rubber Business Council, formerly known as the ASEAN Rubber Business Club was founded on 23 October 1992 in Jakarta, Indonesia under the sponsorship of four natural rubber producing and trading nations in the ASEAN region, namely Rubber Association of Indonesia (GAPKINDO); the Malaysian Rubber Exchange (MRE); the Rubber Trade Association of Singapore (RTAS); and the Thai Rubber Association (TRA) in order to exchange market information, to consult an...

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[   September  2014 ]
icon Rubber price situation

 

Rubber price volatility in the world market is subject to market mechanism such as demand - supply and global economy. Rubber price has steadily continued its decline since October 2011, affecting all sectors involved, especially farmers of over one million families, accounting for over 6 million people, including entrepreneurs. The falling rubber price is expected to have been caused by concerns over the impact of the debt crisis in Europe, Chinese restriction of economic growth...

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