The global economy is expected to slow down due to the impact of inflation and rising production costs. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that the global real GDP growth rate for 2024 and 2025 will be 3.2%. Contributing factors include high interest rates, the appreciation of the US dollar, and geopolitical tensions such as the potential escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Furthermore, the return of the US President Donald Trump, with his continuation of the 'Make America Great Again' policy and the 'America First' agenda, may further exacerbate these challenges. These policies include the imposition of a 60% import tax on China and a 10-20% import tax on other countries, aimed at protecting domestic industries and reducing reliance on foreign production. Such tariffs could disrupt global supply chains, particularly those involving China. Additionally, the effects of climate change, coupled with the spread of rubber leaf fall disease, have severely hindered agricultural production, further compounding economic pressures.

The rubber industry in 2025 is expected to experience a slowdown due to both global economic factors and the issues outlined above. The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) forecasts that global natural rubber production in 2024 will reach 14.53 million tons, reflecting a 4.5% increase from 2023. Thailand remains the leading producer, followed by Indonesia, Côte d'Ivoire, Vietnam, and India. Global demand for natural rubber is expected to be 15.14 million tons, representing a slight decrease of 0.2% from 2023. China remains the top consumer, followed by India, Thailand, the EU-27 & UK, and Indonesia. Thailand faces significant risks from climate change, which is becoming increasingly frequent and severe. Additionally, Thailand’s entrepreneurs face the challenge of adapting to stricter climate-related regulations globally, including the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the EU Deforestation-Free Products Regulation, which is expected to come into effect in early 2026.

In conclusion, the Thai Rubber Association anticipates strong cooperation from the relevant public, private, and smallholder sectors. Thailand must swiftly adjust trade and export strategies by focusing on securing new trade partners, exploring alternative markets to mitigate export risks, and preparing to comply with evolving trade regulations in order to maintain the competitiveness and sustainability of the natural rubber industry.

Mr. Veerasith Sinchareonkul

President

The Thai Rubber Association