In January 2021, rubber prices tend to slow down affected by the new wave of Covid-19 in both domestic and foreign. The lockdown measures in many countries affect shrinking exports. Furthermore, the container shortage problem affects decrease productivity; meanwhile, Freight Charge gets higher. The Freight Charge to Qingdao may increase by 100-250 USD and may increase further if there are no effective control measures. Moreover, Japan has reported a high number of Covid-19 deaths, resulting in a state of emergency declaration in 11 provinces. Besides, China has announced an increase in domestic travel restrictions during the Chinese New Year in early February. There is more rubber output in the market due to the decrease in rainfall. However, there is still a new rubber leaf fall disease problem and the shortage of tapping and producing employees. January's average RSS3 price announced by Central Rubber Market in Songkhla stood at 59.18 Baht/kg, down from the previous month.

Thailand’s economy in 2021 is expected to recover gradually in line with the global economic recovery. That was supported by the progress of Covid-19 vaccine and the economic stimulus measures rolling out in many countries. The Federal Reserve System (Fed) announced to remain the interest rate at a low level near 0% until the US economy recovers from the economic recession. Meanwhile, Thailand’s Ministry of Finance forecast that Thailand’s economy will expand 2.8% per year. In 2021, the number of tourists will decrease. The Thai government has proceeded the further financial measures to support the economic recovery. However, the situation needs to be monitor closely due to the risk and uncertainty. According to the outcome of the Monetary Policy Committee’s Decision held on 3 February 2021, the Committee agreed to remain the policy rate at 0.50% per year, effected immediately. It might expand to 3.2; however, it needs to be followed. Moreover, it also depends on the further appropriate measures implementations and building the new FX ecosystem continually.  

December’s Thailand Industrial Sentiment Index (TISI) is down to 85.8 from 87.4 due to the new wave of Covid-19 pandemic, the slowdown of economic activities and domestic demands, the delay of shipping across the provinces, and the containers shortage problems. However, medical products are still expanding.

In terms of Thailand’s international trade in December 2020, Thailand’s export income value 602,803.60 million baht, up 4.99% yoy, and up 2.88% compared with November 2020. From January to December 2020, Thailand’s export income value 7,178,494.05 million baht, down 5.90% yoy. In terms of trade balance in December 2020, Thailand recorded a trade surplus of 676,087.45 million baht, up from a trade surplus of 202,751.41 million baht in December 2019 (Ministry of Commerce, 2021).

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) informed that the manufacturing sector’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of the US up to 59.2 in January 2021 from 57.1 in December 2020. Meanwhile, Thailand’s PMI down to 49.0 in January 2021 from 50.8 in December 2020 due to the decrease of domestic demands, low customers, the delay orders, the low pressure on inflation in January, and the high cost of raw materials. 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has announced that the crude oil inventories have decreased 9.9 million barrels to 476.7 million barrels for the week ending on 22 January 2021, the lowest in 11 months. In contrast with the analysts who forecasted that it would up 0.43 million barrels. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and Brent crude oil prices down due to the shrink crude oil demand caused by the lockdown measures in many countries after the news about the delay in the delivery of Covid-19 vaccine which AstraZeneca stated that Cocid-19 vaccine had the production problems and expected to reduce 60% of the delivery. On 28 January 2021, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and Brent crude oil prices stood at 52.34 and 55.53 USD/barrel, respectively.     

In December 2020, Thailand exported 386,320.07 tons of natural rubber (including compound rubber), up 5.03% from the previous month and down 10.53% yoy, generating an export income of 18.1 billion baht, up 6.34% compared with the past month, up 5.65% yoy. In the tyre sector, in December 2020, Thailand exported 11.18 million units of all tyres, down 1.34% yoy, with an export value of 13.1 billion baht, down 3.27% YoY.

The amount of Thailand's car production in January-December 2020 is 1,426,970 units, down 29.14% yoy but more than the expectation at 1,400,000 units. In December 2020, Thailand’s car production is 54,137 units, up 4.15% yoy. In December 2020, Thailand’s car production for export is 54,733 units, 38.28% of all production, down 17.84%yoy. For January-December 2020, Thailand’s car production for export is 704,626 units, 49.38% of all production, down 32.06%yoy. For domestic sale, Thailand produced 88,236 units in December 2020. 61.72% of all production, down 30.55%yoy. From January to December 2020, Thailand’s car production for domestic sale is 722,344 units, 50.62 of all car production, down 26.03%yoy.     

The amount of Thailand's car domestic sale in December 2020 is 104,089 units, up 11.3% yoy and up 31.46% from the previous month. It is more than 100,000 units after the first-car buyer scheme. It shows that the domestic economy is recovering because the government has rolled out economic stimulus measures and lessen measures to help people who suffer from Covid-19 such as the income guarantee for farmers program, the “Shop Dee Mee Kuen’’ program (Shop and Payback, the program offers taxpayers income tax deductions when spending up to THB 30,000 for products and services), the “Kon La Khreung” program (Let’s Go Halves or the government’s 3,000-Baht cash handout program), etc. Moreover, the government has invested in Infrastructure. Furthermore, there is the launching of new car models and the stimulus sale package from the distributors in Thailand Motor Expo, from 1-13 December 2020, with more than 33,000 vehicles booked (The Federation of Thai Industries, 2021).