In 2024, the world economy remains highly volatile after President Joe Biden's decision to repeal tariff exemptions on hundreds of Chinese goods. China is preparing to retaliate, while the ECB plans to cut interest rates ahead of the Federal Reserve (FED). The FED retains the option to announce a rate cut but awaits further data on the trajectory of slowing inflation (data dependence). Additionally, the US Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) has increased its economic growth forecast (GDP) for China in 2024 from 4.6% to 5%, yet the recovery in the industrial sector remains fragile.

As for the Thai economic situation in the export and investment sectors this year, it continues to face numerous challenges, including structural problems and political uncertainty. In May 2024, core inflation (Core CPI), excluding fresh food and energy, rose by 0.39% YoY, while headline inflation increased by 1.54% YoY. This uptick can be attributed to higher prices in the energy sector, encompassing gasoline, gasohol, and electricity costs. Consumer confidence has declined amid concerns over the economy's sluggish recovery. Additionally, the cost of living has escalated following the country's oil prices. However, it remains crucial to monitor both domestic and international economic conditions that influence Thailand’s industrial sector. Additionally, close attention should be paid to geopolitical issues that may influence the economy. The US Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) increased from 51.9 in March 2024 to 52.4 in April 2024.

In terms of Thailand’s international trade in April 2024, Thailand’s export income value was 834,018.29 million baht, up 6.81% YoY. Meanwhile, Thailand’s import value was 903,193.99 million baht, up 8.35% YoY. Thailand's trade balance in April 2024 recorded a deficit of 69,175.70 million baht. In May 2024, Thailand’s export income value was 960,220.44 million baht, up 7.20% YoY. Meanwhile, Thailand’s import value was 947,006.51 million baht, down 1.66% YoY. Thailand's trade balance in May 2024 recorded a surplus of 13,213.93 million baht (Trade Policy and Strategy Office, Ministry of Commerce, 2024).

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that crude oil inventory increased by 1.2 million barrels to 455.9 million barrels for the week ending May 31, 2024, contrary to economists' predictions of a 2.3 million barrels decline. The market is closely watching the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for June 1, 2024, in Vienna. Reuters has reported that OPEC+ is likely to extend the current production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day until the end of the third quarter of 2024. The ongoing tension in the Middle East is not expected to directly impact crude oil supply. Nevertheless, we should remain vigilant regarding any potential broader impacts. Crude oil prices fell after the Conference Board reported that the US consumer confidence index rose to 102.0 in May 2024, reflecting consumer concerns about persistent high inflation. Consumers anticipate inflation to rise to 5.4% over the next 12 months, up from 5.3% in April 2024. This expectation could prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain high interest rates for an extended period. On May 29, 2024, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil prices stood at 79.23 and 83.60 USD/barrel, respectively.