For the US economy, inflation tends to slow down, coupled with the Israeli-Hamas war situation, in which the Israeli army declared a truce to agree to exchange approximately 400 hostages. However, the situation must still be monitored because it may be prolonged. The US Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rose to 102.0 in November 2023 from 99.1 in October 2023. China's economy continues to face a crisis in the real estate sector. Recently, China has changed its policies to alleviate the crisis in the real estate sector by helping to stimulate both supply and demand.
In November 2023, Thailand's economy was driven by the tourism sector and a decreasing inflation rate. The headline inflation decreased by 0.44% YOY due to reducing energy prices, following government policy. The Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDB) has forecast GDP growth rates in 2023 and 2024 at 2.5 and 2.7–.37, respectively.
The Thailand Industrial Sentiment Index (TISI) in November 2023 increased to 90.9 from 88.4 the previous month due to the growth in consumption and the tourism sector. Furthermore, the manufacturing sector accelerates its production at the end of the year. Besides, there are measures to reduce the burden of people's living expenses. However, the household debt problem remains at a high level. In addition, the financial institutions remain strict about lending. Therefore, the government should monitor the situation and roll out policies to revive and encourage the economy. Especially in the energy sector, such as reducing the Ft (Fuel Adjustment Charge at the given time) to be fair to both producers and users and measures to freeze oil prices. Overall, Thailand's consumer confidence index for October 2023 was reported at 55.0, down from 55.8 in the previous month.
Regarding Thailand’s international trade in November 2023, Thailand’s export income value was 847,486.08 million baht, expanding 4.9% YoY. Meanwhile, Thailand’s import value was 847,486 million baht, expanding 10.1% YoY. Thailand's trade balance in November 2023 recorded a deficit of 97,387 million baht. From January to November 2023, Thailand’s export income value was 261,770.3 million US dollars, contracting 1.5% YoY. However, calculated in baht terms, Thailand’s trade balance for the first 11 months of 2023 recorded a deficit of 9,013,184 million baht, contracting 1.8% YoY (Trade Policy and Strategy Office, Ministry of Commerce, 2023).
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that crude oil inventories increased by 0.1 million barrels per day to 15.5 million barrels for the period ending November 17, 2023. After the last OPEC+ meeting on November 30, 2023, Saudi Arabia and seven other members volunteered to reduce crude oil production by 2.2 million barrels per day because oil demand is likely to slow down as a result of concerns about the global economic situation. In addition, OPEC+ also revealed that Brazil will join as a new member of OPEC+ in January 2024. The conflict situation between Israel and Hamas is likely to continue to ease following the 6-day temporary ceasefire agreement on November 24-29, 2023. On November 30, 2023, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil prices stood at 75.96 and 82.83 USD/barrel, respectively.
The average rubber prices announced by the Central Rubber Market in Songkhla in November 2023 slightly changed compared with the previous month because rain started to decrease. In October 2023, Thailand exported 350,946 tons of natural rubber (including compound rubber), generating an export income of 16.9 billion baht. In the tire sector, Thailand exported 12.7 million units of all tires for a total value of 21.3 billion baht.
Disclaimer: The information contained herein is obtained from a variety of sources and the dissemination of information is for the purpose of providing information to interested parties only. The Thai Rubber Association is not responsible for any damages that may occur from the use of this information by any person.
