Thailand Monthly Rubber Report – November – December 2024
The US economy continues to expand amid uncertainty. The US is preparing to impose import tariffs on several countries, including a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% tariff on goods from China. The impact of Trump's economic policies, which remain uncertain, may contribute to rising inflation in the near future. While the US economy is experiencing a slowdown, it remains relatively stable, suggesting the possibility of a soft landing. The Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) rose to 49.7 in November, up from 48.5 in the previous month. Additionally, the US Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) increased from 108.7 in October 2024 to 111.7 in November 2024, driven by domestic economic factors, particularly the labor market, which is expected to improve, although the business sector remains cautious.
Thailand’s economy is projected to grow by 2.7% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025. While private consumption has declined, the service and tourism sectors have continued to expand, despite a temporary reduction in the number of Malaysian tourists due to flooding in southern Thailand. The economy faces challenges from increased external competition and heightened uncertainty in the coming period. The current policy interest rate stands at 2.25% per annum. In November 2024, the baht-dollar exchange rate weakened on average, reflecting uncertainties surrounding the anticipated size of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut following the US presidential election results. Core inflation (Core CPI), general inflation excluding fresh food and energy, increased by 0.80% YoY, slightly adjusted from October 2024. Meanwhile, the general inflation rate (Headline Inflation) rose by 0.95% YoY in November 2024. Additionally, the overall consumer confidence index for November 2024 increased to 53.2, up from 52.9 in the previous month.
In terms of Thailand’s international trade in November 2024, Thailand’s export income value was 849,069.32 million baht, up 8.17% YoY but down 5.93% in the previous month. Thailand's import value in November 2024 amounted to 867,456.38 million baht, reflecting a decrease of 7.22% YoY and a decline of 7.19% compared to the previous month. The trade balance for November 2024 recorded a deficit of 18,387.06 million baht (Trade Policy and Strategy Office, Ministry of Commerce, 2024).
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending November 29, 2024, declined by 5.1 million barrels, reaching a total of 423.4 million barrels. Crude oil prices are expected to rise further following reports that OPEC+ may delay its planned increase in oil production from January 2025 to April 2025. The US Federal Reserve's interest rate policy remains uncertain. Additionally, the U.S. dollar may strengthen following the U.S. President’s announcement of a 100% import tax on BRICS countries, after the Conference Board (CB) reported an increase in the U.S. consumer confidence index from 108.7 in October 2024 to 111.7 in November 2024. On November 29, 2024, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil prices stood at $68.00 and $72.94 per barrel, respectively.
In November 2024, the rubber price at the Central Rubber Market in Songkhla adjusted in accordance with the international futures market, with the average price on the Singapore Exchange (SICOM) reaching 191.11 cents per kilogram. The volume of natural rubber released to the market has decreased due to the impact of flooding in several southern provinces, which has damaged agricultural areas and rubber plantations. However, it remains essential to monitor the economic activities of China and the United States, as well as the potential impacts following the U.S. presidential election. In November 2024, Thailand exported 392,626 tons of natural rubber, with an export value of 26.2 billion baht. Additionally, Thailand exported 13.2 million tires in November 2024, generating an export value of 21.72 billion baht.
The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) reported that the total number of cars produced in November 2024 was 117,251 units, representing a 1.34% decrease compared to November 2023. Export production in November 2024 amounted to 80,022 units, accounting for 68.25% of total production, which reflects a 20.67% decline from November 2023. Domestic sales in November 2024 reached 37,229 units, comprising 31.75% of total production, a decrease of 40.42% YoY. However, domestic car sales in November 2024 increased by 12.25% from the previous month, totaling 42,309 units. Despite this, they fell by 31.34% YoY. Total car production from January to November 2024 was 1,364,119 units, which represents a 20.14% decrease from the same period in 2023.
Disclaimer: The information contained herein is obtained from a variety of sources and the dissemination of information is to provide information to interested parties only. The Thai Rubber Association is not responsible for any damages that may occur from the use of this information by any person.
