In 2024, the global economy remains at high risk. The US economy has begun to show clearer signs of slowing down due to the decline in the PMI index across both manufacturing and service sectors. Meanwhile, China is implementing expansionary fiscal measures to further stimulate its economy. However, the unrest in the Middle East necessitates close monitoring, as it may induce fluctuations in energy prices and inflation. Additionally, the US Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) witnessed a decline from 104.7 in March 2024 to 97.0 in April 2024. Furthermore, the effectiveness of China's economic stimulus measures is constrained.

On March 5, 2024, Chinese Premier Li Qiang announced the 2024 economic growth target at the 2nd annual meeting of the 14th National People's Congress (NPC), summarizing the main points as follows: GDP is expected to expand by approximately 5%, maintaining the same target as in 2023. This target takes into account various domestic and international factors, including the imperative to promote employment and mitigate risks, indicating signs of a slight recovery and a potential easing of deflation. Nonetheless, the recovery remains fragile, and the recent measures implemented by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) are expected to have a limited impact.

Thailand's economy is expected to grow at a higher rate than last year, driven by continued support from private consumption and tourism. In March 2024, core inflation (Core CPI), excluding fresh food and energy, increased by 0.37% (YoY), while headline inflation decreased by 0.47% (YoY). This decrease is primarily attributed to the ongoing implementation of the government's energy cost of living assistance measures, such as fixing electricity prices and diesel fuel. Nonetheless, it remains crucial to monitor the economic situation both domestically and internationally, particularly its impact on the Thai manufacturing sector. Additionally, close attention should be paid to geopolitical issues that may influence the economy. Notably, the US Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) declined from 54.1 in March 2024 to 51.9 in April 2024.

In terms of Thailand’s international trade in February 2024, Thailand’s export income value was 827,139 million baht, up 3.6% YoY. Meanwhile, Thailand’s import value was 856,508 million baht, up 3.2% YoY. Thailand's trade balance in February 2024 recorded a deficit of 29,369 million baht. In March 2024, Thailand’s export income value was 892,290 million baht, down 10.9% YoY. Meanwhile, Thailand’s import value was 944,828 million baht, up 5.6% YoY. Thailand's trade balance in March 2024 recorded a deficit of 52,538 million baht (Trade Policy and Strategy Office, Ministry of Commerce, 2024).

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that crude oil inventory increased by 3.2 million barrels to 451.4 million barrels for the week ending March 29, 2024, contrary to economists' predictions of a 1.5 million barrels decline. For the week ending April 26, 2024, crude oil inventory increased by 7.3 million barrels to 460.9 million barrels. Crude oil prices continue to be volatile, primarily due to supply concerns, especially with the ongoing tension in the Middle East. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel stated that Israel will persist with its plans. Crude oil prices have been under pressure due to the dollar strengthening to its highest level in 34 years compared to the yen. On April 26, 2024, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil prices stood at 83.85 and 89.50 USD/barrel, respectively.

The average rubber prices announced by the Central Rubber Market in Songkhla improved in March 2024, aligning with the foreign futures market compared to the previous month. This improvement can be attributed to lower rubber output released to the market. Meanwhile, rubber demand is increasing, driven by the expanding automotive industry, particularly the popularity of electric vehicles (EVs). In addition, the baht depreciated; however, in early April 2024, there was a decline in line with the foreign futures market, which also decreased. Overall, it continues to trend positively. In February and March 2024, Thailand exported 397,643 and 376,699 tons of natural rubber (including compound rubber), generating an export income of 21.4 and 21.7 billion baht. In the tire sector, Thailand exported 11.4 and 13.3 million units of all tires, for a total value of 20.5 and 23.9 billion baht.

According to the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), in March 2024, Thailand produced 138,331 cars, marking a 23.08% drop YoY but a 3.47% increase from the previous month. Of these, 91,808 units were produced for export, accounting for 66.37% of all production, reflecting a 9.09% decrease YoY. Domestic production for sale totaled 46,523 units, constituting 33.63% of all production, reflecting a 41.01% decrease YoY. Meanwhile, domestic car sales in March 2024 reached 56,099 units, representing a 6.16% increase from the previous month but a 29.83% decrease YoY. This decline is attributed to stricter loan approval processes by financial institutions due to high household debt and a weak economy.