The global economy in 2024 is still expected to slow down, while the weak US and Eurozone economies are beginning to show signs of deceleration in the second half of the year. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is anticipated to cut interest rates in September 2024. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast global GDP growth for 2024 at 3.2%. The US Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) increased from 97.8 in June 2024 to 100.3 in July 2024. Overall, although American consumers are confident in the US labor market, they remain concerned about rising market prices, increasing interest rates, and other risk factors. The Chinese economy continues to show signs of uneven recovery, facing pressures from deflation and sluggish domestic consumption.
Thailand’s economy is expected to gradually recover in the second half of the year amid significant risks. The Bank of Thailand (BOT) may maintain the interest rate at 2.50% throughout 2024. In July 2024, this outlook was supported by the continuous expansion of the tourism sector, primarily from China, Malaysia, India, and South Korea, along with exports of goods that have returned to high growth. However, concerns about low economic growth persist. Government spending has expanded due to both regular and investment expenditures by the central government, but private investment must be closely monitored. Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) increased by 0.52% YoY, up from 0.36% YoY in June 2024. Headline inflation in July 2024 increased by 0.83% YoY. However, it is essential to closely monitor both domestic and international economic conditions that could impact Thailand's industrial sector. Additionally, the overall consumer confidence index decreased to 49.7 in June 2024, down from 52.3 in the previous month.
In terms of Thailand’s international trade in July 2024, Thailand’s export income value was 938,285.09 million baht, up 15.23% YoY. Meanwhile, Thailand’s import value was 999,754.54 million baht, up 13.10% YoY. Thailand's trade balance in July 2024 recorded a deficit of 61,469.45 million baht (Trade Policy and Strategy Office, Ministry of Commerce, 2024).
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that crude oil inventory decreased by 3.4 million barrels to 433 million barrels for the week ending July 26, 2024 after the Conference Board (CB) reported that the US Consumer Confidence Index increased to 100.3 in July 2024 from 97.8 in June 2024. On July 31, 2024, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil prices stood at $77.91 and $80.72 per barrel, respectively.
The average rubber prices announced by the Central Rubber Market in Songkhla dropped in July 2024, aligning with the foreign futures market with the average SICOM rubber price at 62.10 baht per kg. but still in a long-term upward trend. However, it is still necessary to monitor China's economic activities. Thailand exported 371,636.60 tons of natural rubber in July 2024, with an export value of 24.5 billion baht. As for tires in July 2024, Thailand exported 12.8 units of all tires, with an export value of 23 billion baht.
According to the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), in July 2024, Thailand produced 124,829 cars, marking a 16.62% drop YoY. Of these, 37,291 units were produced for domestic sale, accounting for 29.87% of all production, reflecting a 40.85% decrease YoY. Domestic car sales in July 2024 totaled 46,394 units, a decrease of 2.66% from June 2024 and 20.58% drop YoY. This decline is attributed to stricter loan approvals, particularly for pickup trucks and larger trucks, due to concerns over high household debt.
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